Reference rate forecast: will it fall in December 2026?
Based on the Federal Housing Office's figures, the reference rate will very probably stay at 1.25 % on 1 December 2026: the underlying average rate was last 1.31 % and would have to fall below 1.13 % for the reference rate to drop to 1.00 %. This is our assessment, not a guarantee. Tenants whose rent is still based on 1.50 % or more do not need to wait – they can claim a reduction today.
How the reference rate is set
The mortgage reference rate is not a forecast or a policy decision. It follows a fixed rule: every quarter, the Swiss National Bank collects on behalf of the Federal Housing Office (BWO) the interest rates on all domestic Swiss-franc mortgages held by banks. The volume-weighted average rate is then rounded commercially to the nearest quarter point. The BWO's own example: an average of 1.62 % gives a reference rate of 1.50 %, an average of 1.63 % gives 1.75 %. This method has applied since December 2011.
Because the average covers all existing mortgages – including many fixed-rate mortgages with terms of several years – it moves slowly. A change in the SNB policy rate only feeds through as old mortgages are renewed.
The latest figures
| Measurement date | Average rate | Reference rate |
|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2025 | 1.44 % | 1.50 % |
| 30 June 2025 | 1.37 % | 1.25 % (from 2 Sep 2025) |
| 30 September 2025 | 1.33 % | 1.25 % |
| 31 December 2025 | 1.32 % | 1.25 % |
| 31 March 2026 | 1.31 % | 1.25 % |
| 30 June 2026 | 1.31 % | 1.25 % |
Source: BWO press releases. The full history of published reference rates is on our page reference rate and CPI.
Thresholds for the next move
- Average 1.12 % or lowerReference rate falls to 1.00 %. Tenants could claim a further 2.91 %.
- Average 1.13 %–1.37 %Reference rate stays at 1.25 %. Currently: 1.31 %.
- Average 1.38 % or higherReference rate rises to 1.50 %. Landlords could raise rents by up to 3 %.
The BWO puts it the same way: the rate stays at 1.25 % "until the average rate falls below 1.13 % or rises above 1.37 %".
Our assessment for December 2026
The December announcement will be based on the average as at 30 September 2026. For a cut to 1.00 %, the average would have to drop from 1.31 % to 1.12 % or below – almost 0.2 percentage points in a single quarter. Over the past year it moved by at most 0.04 points per quarter, and even the steep drop in mid-2025 was 0.07 points. During the negative-interest period, the average was still 1.17 % at the end of June 2022, never below the threshold.
A rise to 1.50 % is also unlikely in the short term: the average has been flat or falling, and the SNB left its policy rate at 0 % on 24 September 2026, with an inflation forecast of 0.7 % for 2026 and 0.8 % for 2027. UBS also expects no change before the end of 2027.
Our assessment: the reference rate will very probably stay at 1.25 % on 1 December 2026. This is an evaluation of published figures, not a guarantee. We will update this page after the announcement.
The next publication dates
- 30 Sep 2026Measurement date
Banks report their mortgage portfolios as at this date.
- 1 Dec 2026Announcement
The BWO publishes the average and the reference rate.
- 2 Dec 2026Any new rate applies
A reference rate applies from the day after publication.
- 2027Following announcements
1 March, 1 June, 1 September and 1 December 2027.
A cut is not automatic
When the reference rate falls, rents do not go down by themselves. Landlords are not obliged to pass on a lower rate on their own initiative; many do not. The tenant has to send a written reduction request to the landlord, observing the notice period to the next termination date (Art. 270a CO). The landlord then has 30 days to reply. If the landlord refuses or does not answer, the tenant can go to the conciliation authority within a further 30 days.
The same applies to the cut to 1.25 % in September 2025: if your rent is still based on 1.50 % and you have never asked for a reduction, that claim is open today.
Worked example: what a cut to 1.00 % would mean
Take a net rent of CHF 2'000 based on today's 1.25 %. A cut to 1.00 % would allow a reduction of 2.91 %, i.e. CHF 58.20 per month or CHF 698.40 per year – before the offsets the landlord may claim for inflation and general cost increases. For a rent still based on 1.50 %, today's claim is already 2.91 % (CHF 58.20 on CHF 2'000), and a further cut would raise it to 5.66 % (CHF 113.20) before offsets. Your own figures, including offsets, are in the calculator.
What tenants should do in each scenario
- Rate stays at 1.25 % (most likely): if your rent is still based on 1.50 % or more, you can claim a reduction today – there is no reason to wait. Every termination date you miss means paying too much for longer. Check your case in the calculator and see the request template.
- Rate falls to 1.00 % (unlikely): tenants whose rent is based on 1.25 % could then also claim a reduction of 2.91 % before offsets. If you already filed a request at 1.50 %, you can file again.
- Rate rises to 1.50 % (unlikely in the short term): landlords could raise rents by at most 3 % per quarter point (Art. 13 VMWG), only with the official form and to the next termination date. You can challenge an increase within 30 days (Art. 270b CO).
Frequently asked questions
Will the reference rate fall in December 2026?
Very probably not. The average rate was 1.31 % on 30 June 2026. To drop to 1.00 %, it would have to fall below 1.13 % – almost 0.2 percentage points in one quarter. Recently it fell by at most a few hundredths per quarter. This is an assessment based on published figures, not a guarantee.
When is the next reference rate announced?
On 1 December 2026; any new rate applies from the following day. After that, the Federal Housing Office publishes on 1 March, 1 June, 1 September and 1 December 2027.
How is the reference rate calculated?
It is based on the volume-weighted average interest rate on banks' domestic mortgage claims, measured every quarter. That average is rounded commercially to the nearest quarter point: 1.37 % gives 1.25 %, 1.38 % would give 1.50 %.
Should I wait for a further cut before requesting a reduction?
No, if your rent is still based on 1.50 % or more. You can claim that reduction today, and it applies from the next termination date. Waiting may mean missing a date and overpaying for longer. If the rate falls further later, you can file another request.
Could the reference rate rise again?
Yes, if the average rate rises above 1.37 %. The landlord could then raise the rent by at most 3 % per quarter point (Art. 13 VMWG) – only with the official form and to a termination date. You can challenge an increase within 30 days (Art. 270b CO). On current figures, this is unlikely in the short term.
Why does the reference rate react so slowly to the SNB policy rate?
Because it reflects the average of all existing mortgages, including many fixed-rate mortgages running for several years. Changes to the policy rate only feed through when old mortgages are renewed. The SNB has kept its policy rate at 0 % since June 2025, most recently on 24 September 2026.
Sources
- Federal Housing Office: press release of 1 September 2026 (reference rate stays at 1.25 %)
- Federal Housing Office: mortgage reference rate (publication dates)
- Federal Housing Office: fact sheet on the reference rate (rounding rule, PDF, German)
- Federal Housing Office: press release of 1 September 2025 (cut to 1.25 %)
- Swiss National Bank: monetary policy decisions
- UBS: reference rate – status and outlook (German)
Related guides
This guide explains the general legal position under Swiss tenancy law. It is not legal advice for your individual case. For disputes, contact your cantonal conciliation authority or a tenants' association.